基于改进粒子群算法的无人机航迹规划

针对当前基本粒子群算法无人机航迹规划在后期收敛速度比较慢、效率不高、易陷入局部最优等问题,提出一种改进粒子群算法。首先,在迭代前期和后期分段设置惯性权值的调整,实现粒子惯性和寻优行为的平衡;其次,设置一个定值与相邻2次适应度函数最优值比较策略,防止陷入局部最优;最后,引入遗传算法的交叉、变异机制,得出更优的结果。并通过仿真验证了改进粒子群算法在三维空间航迹规划的有效性和可行性。结果表明,与其他航迹规划算法相比,新算法具有路径长度更短、耗时更少、路径更平滑等优点,加快了收敛速度,提高了航迹规划效率和稳定性。因此,改进算法的航迹规划可得到满足约束关系的最优航迹,对实现自主飞行有重要的参考价值。     

An extended likelihood framework for modelling discretely observed credit rating transitions

The estimation of the parameters of a continuous-time Markov chain from discrete-time observations, also known as the embedding problem for Markov chains, plays in particular an important role for the modeling of credit rating transitions. This missing data problem boils down to a latent variable setting and thus, maximum likelihood estimation is usually conducted using the expectation-maximization (EM) algorithm. We illustrate that the EM algorithm is likely to get stuck in local maxima of the likelihood function in this specific problem setting and adapt a stochastic approximation simulated annealing scheme (SASEM) as well as a genetic algorithm (GA) to combat this issue. Above that, our main contribution is to extend our method GA by a rejection sampling scheme, which allows one to derive stochastic monotone maximum likelihood estimates in order to obtain proper (non-crossing) multi-year probabilities of default. We advocate the use of this procedure as direct constrained optimization (of the likelihood function) will not be numerically stable due to the large number of side conditions. Furthermore, the monotonicity constraint enables one to combine structural knowledge of the ordinality of credit ratings with real-life data into a statistical estimator, which has a stabilizing effect on far off-diagonal generator matrix elements. We illustrate our methods by Standard and Poor’s credit rating data as well as a simulation study and benchmark our novel procedure against an already existing smoothing algorithm.     

基于PSO的信息熵数据融合非均匀分簇路由算法

针对无线传感器网络分簇算法中能量分布不均衡导致的"热区"和簇头负载过重问题,提出了一种基于PSO算法优化簇头选举的非均匀分簇算法。在候选簇头选举和竞争半径计算过程中综合考虑节点动态能量、节点密度和节点距基站距离,将网络进行非均匀分簇,并引入PSO算法进行最终簇头选举。根据节点能量、节点密度和距基站距离确定簇间单跳多跳结合的路由规则,选取代价函数小的节点作为下一跳节点。基于节点信息熵确定融合阈值,进行簇内数据融合剔除冗余数据。仿真结果表明,改进算法的数据传输量比EEUC算法和UCRA算法分别提高了20%和10%,提升了数据的融合效率,有效延长了网络生命周期,簇头能量消耗得到均衡,减少了网络能量消耗,网络的整体性能显著优于其他对比算法。     

基于改进指纹聚类的WLAN定位优化方法

将K-means聚类算法应用到无线局域网（WLAN）位置指纹定位中，虽然可以缩短定位时间，但是容易降低定位精度。为了解决此问题，提出了基于改进指纹聚类的WLAN定位优化方法。首先根据接收信号强度标准差来优化初始聚类中心的选取,然后对指纹数据进行聚类处理,最后进行在线定位。实验结果表明，与传统的WLAN位置指纹定位方法和K-means聚类定位方法相比，基于改进指纹聚类的定位优化方法不仅缩短了定位时间，还能有效提高定位精度。     

基于改进Dijkstra算法的最短路算法

Dijkstra算法是求解最短路径问题的经典算法。在现如今的城市交通网络中,经常需要寻求两个地点之间的最短距离,减少运输时间。本文将Dijkstra算法与C语言相结合,对Dijkstra算法进行改进,根据实际网络图的情况,建立了相应的数学模型,运用C语言编程,在给定的网络图中,实现了只需确定起始点和终点,就可以直接输出最短路径和最短距离的功能。在有多个相同最短路径的情况下,会将多个最短路径一起输出,在搜索到终点时,立即跳出,结束循环。在一般情况下,无需对所有点进行迭代,提高了效率。这种方法可以应用到现在的物流运输中,以此来节约时间,降低成本。     

不确定环境下的地震应急救援路径优化研究

针对地震应急救援的特点,引入不确定理论,在地震灾害的背景下,研究震后动态网络环境下的应急救援路径选择问题。用不确定变量表示网络中各路段的破坏程度,综合考虑路径破坏程度及车辆路径连续性等约束条件,以救援时间最短为目标,基于不确定理论建立了动态优化模型,并用改进的遗传算法求解,最后设计算例验证了模型和算法的有效性。     

基于PCA-BP-GA的BOT项目风险预测研究

由于BOT项目本身的长期性和复杂性,所以在BOT项目实施前需要准确科学的预测出所面临的风险大小。针对BOT项目风险影响因素众多的问题,先利用主成分分析法进行降维,然后利用遗传算法找出BP神经网络的最优全值阈值,建立了PCAGA-BP BOT项目风险预测模型。同时将以往的BOT项目数据作为学习样本,对BOT项目风险进行预测,并利用某地污水厂的例子进行验证,说明此模型对实际工程的科学指导性。     

基于遗传算法的锅炉水位控制器设计

文章分析了锅炉水位控制系统的基本原理及结构,针对传统PID控制器的不足之处设计了基于遗传算法的新型锅炉水位控制器,在此基础上搭建了锅炉水位控制系统。最后,通过仿真验证了该水位控制器在改善水位系统稳态误差及动态超调方面均具有较好的作用。     

Numerical Maximisation of Likelihood: A Neglected Alternative to EM?

There is by now a long tradition of using the EM algorithm to find maximum‐likelihood estimates (MLEs) when the data are incomplete in any of a wide range of ways, even when the observed‐data likelihood can easily be evaluated and numerical maximisation of that likelihood is available as a conceptually simple route to the MLEs. It is rare in the literature to see numerical maximisation employed if EM is possible. But with excellent general‐purpose numerical optimisers now available free, there is no longer any reason, as a matter of course, to avoid direct numerical maximisation of likelihood. In this tutorial, I present seven examples of models in which numerical maximisation of likelihood appears to have some advantages over the use of EM as a route to MLEs. The mathematical and coding effort is minimal, as there is no need to derive and code the E and M steps, only a likelihood evaluator. In all the examples, the unconstrained optimiser nlm available in R is used, and transformations are used to impose constraints on parameters. I suggest therefore that the following question be asked of proposed new applications of EM: Can the MLEs be found more simply and directly by using a general‐purpose numerical optimiser?     

Searching for empirical linkages between demographic structure and economic growth

Demographic structure could affect economic growth through many channels. However, little is known about how demographic structure affects economic growth since no study has examined an extensive collection of channels through which demographic structure could affect economic growth in a single context. This paper overcomes this limitation by examining 45 potential mediating variables between demographic structure and economic growth. A causal search algorithm is used to identify channels through which demographic structure affects economic growth. Our results suggest that demographic structure affects economic growth differently between developed and developing countries. For developed countries, we find that an increase in the share of middle-aged workers has a positive effect on economic growth through institutions, investment and education channels. On the other hand, an increase in the share of the senior population has a negative effect on economic growth through institutions and investment channels. For developing countries, we find (but with weak evidence) that an increase in the share of young workers has a negative effect on economic growth through investment, financial market development and trade channels.